Mabux: Global Bunker Prices

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MABUX ARA LNG Bunker Index
Port LNG$/mton MGO LS$/mton Date
ARA
717.50
-18.00
667.00
+1.00
Sep 1
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Port	LNG$/mton	MGO LS$/mton	Date
ARA	717.50	-18.00	667.00	+1.00	Sep 1

MABUX Global Bunker Index

380HSFO$/mton		VLS FO$/mton		MGO LS$/mton		Date
457.99	-7.84	545.62	-8.69	774.00	-1.88	Sep 4

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MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)

Correlation between market bunker prices (MBP) and MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP)

All Indexes in $/mton	380HSFO			VLS FO			MGO LS			Date
All Indexes in $/mton	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	MBP Index	DBP Index	MDI	Date
Rotterdam	408	439	-31	471	491	-20	667	707	-40	Sep 4
Singapore	411	447	-36	501	532	-31	669	740	-71	Sep 4
Fujairah	396	481	-85	505	536	-31	737	893	-156	Sep 4
Houston	392	448	-56	495	568	-73	667	737	-70	Sep 4

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- Daily and Weekly Bunker analyses and Future Curves
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Latest News
- 2025-09-04
  Procureship and ReFlow launch Scope 3 emissions tool for maritime supply chain
  Maritime e-procurement platform provider Procureship has partnered with Copenhagen-based climate data firm ReFlow to launch a Scope 3 emissions solution to enable ship owners, operators, and managers to prepare for the EU Corporate Sustainability Reporting... Read more
- 2025-09-04
  Provaris and Baker Hughes ink deal on compressed hydrogen solutions for marine transportation and storage
  Australia-headquartered Provaris has signed a strategic collaboration agreement with the global energy technology company Baker Hughes to work together on the development and deployment of compressed hydrogen. In a statement issued on Tuesday (2 September)... Read more
- 2025-09-04
  Trio undertaking study on ammonia’s contribution to maritime sector’s decarbonisation
  Ricardo, Brunel University of London and Port of Cromarty Firth are collaborating on a study to understand ammonia’s role in decarbonising the maritime sector and the feasibility of four-stroke ammonia-fuelled marine engines. The feasibility study,... Read more
- 2025-09-04
  NatPower Marine and Wah Kwong announce Asia zero-emission port power project
  The UK’s NatPower Marine and Hong Kong shipowner Wah Kwong have launched a joint venture to deliver large-scale shore power infrastructure in Hong Kong and across Asia The project partners said it will be the first dedicated marine electrification... Read more
- 2025-09-04
  Nordic Energy Partners establishes local presence in Singapore
  Denmark-based Nordic Energy Partners has announced that it has established a new local presence in Singapore. In a notice posted on LinkedIn this morning (4 September), the company said that Bernard Cheah has joined the team as Operations Executive/Sales... Read more
- 2025-09-04
  MABUX: Bunker Weekly Outlook, Week 36, 2025.
  At the close of the 36th week, the global bunker indices MABUX maintained their moderate upward trend. The 380 HSFO index rose by USD 5.57, from USD 461.51/MT the previous week to USD 467.08/MT. The VLSFO index gained USD 6.92, reaching USD 555.84/MT... Read more At the close of the 36th week, the global bunker indices MABUX maintained their moderate upward trend. The 380 HSFO index rose by USD 5.57, from USD 461.51/MT the previous week to USD 467.08/MT. The VLSFO index gained USD 6.92, reaching USD 555.84/MT compared to USD 548.92/MT a week earlier, thus surpassing the USD 550 mark. The MGO index increased by USD 11.98, climbing from USD 763.73/MT to USD 775.81/MT. However, as of the time of writing, the global bunker market showed no clear overall direction.
  
  The MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS)—the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO—continued its slight growth, rising by USD 1.35 from USD 87.41 to USD 88.76. The index is gradually approaching the USD 90.00 mark but remains steadily below the psychological level of USD 100.00 (SS Breakeven). The weekly average also gained USD 1.97. In Rotterdam, the SS Spread increased by USD 2.00 (USD 68.00 versus USD 66.00 last week), with the weekly average up by USD 3.66. In contrast, Singapore saw a decline: the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price difference fell by USD 1.00 (down to USD 90.00), while the weekly average decreased by USD 0.84. At present, SS indicators show no clear dynamics, with values fluctuating around previously reached levels. We do not anticipate significant changes in the SS Spread trend next week. Under current conditions, conventional VLSFO remains more profitable than the HSFO + Scrubber combination. Detailed information is available in the Differentials section on mabux.com.
  
  Exxon forecasts that global natural gas demand will rise more than 20% by 2050 compared with 2024, driven by coal displacement in industry and higher power use in emerging markets. This outlook supports Exxon’s long-term strategy, including an 18% production increase over the next five years. Oil demand is projected to plateau after 2030 but stay above 100 million barrels per day through 2050, while oil and gas together are expected to account for roughly 55% of the global energy mix. Exxon positions natural gas as a key transition fuel for industry and dispatchable power generation, where coal remains entrenched. The company also projects energy-related CO₂ emissions of about 27 billion metric tons by 2050, down around 25% from today’s levels but still above United Nations targets.
  
  As of September 2, European regional gas storage facilities were 78.08% full, an increase of 1.84% from the previous week. Occupancy levels are 6.75% higher compared to the beginning of the year (71.33%), although the pace of injections has slowed slightly. By the end of the 36th week, the European gas benchmark TTF fell by 1.688 euros/MWh, reaching 31.772 euros/MWh compared with 33.460 euros/MWh a week earlier.
  
  The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) rose by another $7.00 by the end of the week, reaching 762 USD/MT compared with 755 USD/MT the previous week. At the same time, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel widened further in favor of conventional fuel—32 USD versus just 9 USD a week earlier. On this day, MGO LS was quoted at 730 USD/MT in the port of Sines. More detailed information is available in the LNG Bunkering section of mabux.com.
  
  At the close of the 36th week, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI)—the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP) to the digital bunker benchmark MABUX (DBP)—continued to indicate undervaluation across all bunker fuel types in the world’s largest hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston:
  
  • 380 HSFO segment: Weekly average undervaluation increased by 8 points in Rotterdam and 22 points in Houston, while it decreased by 2 points in Singapore and 3 points in Fujairah. All MDI values in this segment remained below the USD 100 mark.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Undervaluation levels rose by 6 points in Rotterdam and 1 point in Singapore, but declined by 5 points in Fujairah and 1 point in Houston.
  
  • MGO LS segment: Values increased by 5 points in Rotterdam, 1 point in Singapore, and 3 points in Fujairah, while dropping by 1 point in Houston. Notably, the Fujairah MDI continues to hold above the USD 100 threshold.
  
  Overall, there were no major shifts in the structure of overvalued versus undervalued ports during the week. MDI values remained steady at previously established levels, with the undervaluation trend continuing to dominate across all bunker fuel segments. No significant changes in the dynamics of MDI indices are expected in the coming week.
  
  More details on the correlation between market prices and the MABUX digital benchmark are available in the “Digital Bunker Prices” section of mabux.com.
  
  According to Drewry, about 90 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions were recorded under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), up roughly 14% from the previous year. This increase was partly driven by geopolitical factors that forced vessels to take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope instead of the shorter Suez Canal passage. Although container ships represent only 16% of the fleet (21% by deadweight), they generated about 34% of total CO₂ emissions. At the current EUA price of around €70, liable parties are expected to pay an estimated US$2.9 billion in October. If emissions remain at similar levels, Drewry projects costs could rise to about US$7.5 billion once the phase-in period ends and all greenhouse gases (GHGs) are covered in 2026. For 2024, each RoPax and passenger vessel will pay on average about US$1 million under the EU ETS, while a container vessel will pay around US$0.5 million.
  
  We expect the global bunker market will sustain its moderate upward momentum in the coming week.
  Source: MABUX
- 2025-09-04
  Oil prices extend losses as OPEC+ considers another output hike
  Oil prices slid on Thursday, extending a decline of more than 2% in the previous session, as investors and traders look ahead to a weekend meeting of OPEC+ where producers are expected to consider another increase in output targets. Brent crude fell... Read more Oil prices slid on Thursday, extending a decline of more than 2% in the previous session, as investors and traders look ahead to a weekend meeting of OPEC+ where producers are expected to consider another increase in output targets.
  Brent crude fell 46 cents, or 0.7%, to $67.14 a barrel by 0416 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 47 cents, or 0.7%, to $63.5 a barrel.
  Eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies - known together as OPEC+ - will consider further increases to production in October at a meeting on Sunday, two sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters, as the group seeks to regain market share.
  "Brent crude oil came under renewed pressure as OPEC+ considers releasing more barrels in (the fourth quarter). If it moves ahead, this could worsen the expected surplus, particularly during the lean demand season," said ANZ Research analysts in a client note.
  OPEC+ had already agreed to raise output targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, in addition to a 300,000 bpd quota increase for the United Arab Emirates.
  Over the past few months, despite the accelerating production increases, Middle Eastern oil prices have remained the strongest regional prices globally. This has bolstered the confidence of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members to boost output, according to a Haitong Securities’ report.
  
  Another factor likely driving the OPEC+ decision to increase quotas since April is to claim more market share, Vivek Dhar, an analyst at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.
  "This implies that OPEC+ are more comfortable with a lower Brent oil price" of around $60 to $65 a barrel, than their previous target of $70, Dhar said.
  That means Brent futures are likely to fall into the $60-$65 range, which would push WTI to a high-$50 to low-$60 range that would challenge the economics of U.S. shale oil supply growth, he added.
  Market participants are also awaiting government data on U.S. crude stockpiles later due on Thursday, a day later than usual because of a U.S. holiday on Monday.
  
  U.S. crude stocks rose by 622,000 barrels in the week ended on August 29, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Wednesday. [EIA/S] [API/S]
  The API estimate for a U.S. build in crude stocks went against analysts polled by Reuters who estimated, on average, that U.S. crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels. Source: Reuters/Investing.com
- 2025-09-04
  Are the Bears Wrong About the Looming Glut in Oil?
  The oil market is oversupplied while demand growth is slowing down—this has become the dominant assumption among oil traders over the past two years, repeatedly reinforced by analyst outlets. Assumptions, however, are often wrong, especially when not... Read more The oil market is oversupplied while demand growth is slowing down—this has become the dominant assumption among oil traders over the past two years, repeatedly reinforced by analyst outlets. Assumptions, however, are often wrong, especially when not based on physical data.
  
  The International Energy Agency’s latest monthly report, for instance, said that the world is facing a record overhang of crude oil, set to unfold in the final quarter of this year and extend into the first months of 2026. The expected glut was attributed to lower-than-expected oil consumption in several large developing world markets, combined with rising production in both OPEC+ and elsewhere, notably in the United States, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil.
  
  The investment banks also see a glut, as they tend to do unless there is a war breaking out somewhere. Goldman Sachs recently forecast Brent crude would drop below $55 per barrel next year, citing a supply overhang of 1.8 million barrels daily at the end of this year, very much in tune with the IEA. Morgan Stanley is more guarded in its forecasts but still assumes abundant supply, as does ING in most of its regular commodity market notes. But there are some exceptions.
  
  One of these has recently been Standard Chartered, which has bucked the trend of doomsaying among oil price forecasters, noting bullish factors that other forecasters either ignore or overlook. The other is Oxford Energy, which this week released a report taking a close look at the physical oil market. Surprisingly, for many, the physical market does not show evidence of a glut forming anytime soon.
  
  Crude oil inventories are always a good place to start, and that is exactly where Oxford Energy starts, noting that inventories in the OECD have only gained a rather modest 4 million barrels over the first six months of the year. This modest increase means OECD oil stocks are still substantially below the five-year average, the research outlet noted, adding that the gap with that average was 122 million barrels.
  
  The inventory situation is similar in the United States as well, even though the benchmarks slide every Wednesday when the U.S. Energy Information Administration reports a crude inventory draw. Over a longer period, however, inventories have trended down, suggesting demand is pretty healthy and the threat of a massive glut may well be a bit exaggerated.
  
  So, what about inventories outside of the OECD and outside of the United States? China, notably, has been building up its oil in storage, taking advantage of discounted sanctioned Russian crude. Earlier this year, media reports said Chinese crude oil inventories had hit a three-year high, suggesting demand growth was lagging behind refinery processing rates. There have also been repeated warnings about slowing oil demand in the world’s largest oil importer—even when imports increase and so do processing rates at Chinese refineries.
  
  Oxford Energy notes, however, that since China does not report inventory information, it is difficult to get an accurate number on oil stocks and estimates produced by data trackers vary too widely to offer reliable information.
  
  Another factor to take into account when studying oil price prospects is floating storage, according to the analysts. This boomed in 2020 when lockdowns decimated demand and supply turned excessive. After the end of the pandemic, oil in floating storage declined before rising again amid Western sanctions on Russia. Still, Oxford Energy notes, the level of oil in floating storage remains below the levels reached in 2022.
  
  Then there is the matter of oil products. If there is too much supply around, some of it would go into storage—including expensive floating storage—but the rest would be turned into fuels and other products. Once again, all eyes are on China, where another surprise is waiting. Per Kpler data cited by Oxford Energy, oil product exports from China have not gone higher. They have actually gone down by 10% and remain weak. One reason for this is, of course, government quota-setting. Another, however, may well be healthy demand for fuels at home.
  
  As the oil market awaits OPEC’s next meeting to start exiting its positions in anticipation of that glut, it may be wise to keep the physical market in mind, along with the fact that the IEA has repeatedly had to revise its own forecasts as physical world data comes in and refutes them.
  
  More interesting, however, is this quote from a recent note from ING analysts: “The scale of the surplus through next year means it’s unlikely the group [OPEC+] will bring additional supply onto the market. The bigger risk is OPEC+ deciding to reinstate supply cuts, given concerns about a surplus.” If there is a massive surplus on the way, any new cuts from OPEC+ should have a limited effect on prices, just as they did over the past two years. But maybe that massive surplus is not so certain, after all. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-09-04
  Gulf Countries Respond to U.S. Trade Pressure With Trillion Dollar Plans
  Over the past decade, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, has advanced bold strategies to reshape its economies by reducing reliance on oil while developing new sectors like renewable... Read more Over the past decade, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), comprising Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman, has advanced bold strategies to reshape its economies by reducing reliance on oil while developing new sectors like renewable energy, tourism, financial services, and digital innovation. Charting a course toward long-term economic resilience, these nations have launched sweeping infrastructure projects and enacted reforms designed to attract foreign investment. And it has worked swimmingly, so far.
  
  During his May 2025 tour of Riyadh, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, U.S. President Donald Trump announced investment pledges totaling over $2?trillion, according to the White House, while some outlets, such as Al?Monitor, reported figures nearing $3.2?trillion. These announcements included roughly $600?billion from Saudi Arabia, $1.2?trillion from the UAE, and $1.4?trillion from Qatar, though most remain at the memorandum-of-understanding stage.
  
  Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s "Liberation Day" tariff, a baseline 10% customs duty on imports from all countries, including the GCC, has posed a modest headwind for regional exporters.
  
  Nonetheless, GCC states have responded proactively by deepening U.S. economic ties, scaling up their AI and data infrastructure, and doubling down on non?oil growth strategies—efforts that underscore their determination to build more diversified, stable, and climate-aligned economies.
  
  These diversification efforts, coupled with the recent rollback of OPEC+ oil production cuts, are paying off, with the economies of the oil-rich monarchies thriving again. The World Bank has projected that the GCC economy will expand by 3.2% in 2025 and 4.50% in 2026, a significant rebound after growing at an anemic 1.7% clip in 2024 and just 0.3% in 2023. In contrast, the biggest Bretton Woods institution has forecast that the global economy will grow at a slower 2.3% clip in 2025, slowing to its weakest pace since 2008 outside of recessions, before a tepid recovery averaging 2.5 percent over 2026-27. This downward revision from earlier forecasts is attributed to heightened trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and the dampening effects on investment and consumer sentiment.
  
  Here’s the GCC countries' outlook:
  
  Saudi Arabia: the largest GCC economy is projected to continue on its recovery path, rising to 2.8% in 2025 and averaging robust growth of 4.6% in 2026-2027 after declining to 1.3% in 2023. Saudi Arabia is expected to post a healthy hydrocarbon GDP growth of 6.7% in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027, thanks to the phasing out of OPEC+ voluntary production cuts. Meanwhile, the kingdom’s non-oil GDP is expected to continue growing at a steady 3.6% rate between 2025 and 2027 as it pursues the Vision 2030 economic diversification agenda.
  
  United Arab Emirates: Economic growth is expected to maintain its upward trajectory to hit 4.6% in 2025 before stabilizing at 4.9% in 2026 and 2027. The UAE’s non-oil sectors are expected to remain a key growth engine (4.9% growth in 2025), thanks in large part to ongoing governance improvements, targeted public investment and expanding external partnerships. Meanwhile, normalization of oil production levels is expected to support this ascending trend. The UAE cut oil production multiple times in recent years, including a voluntary 144,000 bpd cut effective May 2023 and a further 163,000 bpd cut from January 1, 2024, to March 31, 2024.
  
  Qatar: Economic growth is projected to decline slightly to 2.4% in 2025 from 2.6% in 2024, before accelerating to 6.5% in 2026-2027 thanks to the ongoing expansion of LNG capacity. Qatar is undertaking a major, multi-phase expansion of its North Field liquefaction plant to significantly increase its liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, aiming to boost capacity from its current 77 million tons per annum (mtpa) to 142 mtpa by 2030. The expansion, encompassing the North Field East (NFE) (first phase) and North Field South (NFS) projects, will add new trains to the existing facilities, with the final phase, North Field West (NFW), announced in February 2024, bringing the total to 142 mtpa. This expansion aims to provide a stable, low-cost supply of LNG to meet global demand, with significant portions expected to go to East Asian markets and Europe, a key transitional fuel for decarbonization
  
  Meanwhile, Qatar is also expected to record strong non-hydrocarbon growth, particularly in services, tourism and education. Non-hydrocarbon growth is expected to be robust thanks to international investments and infrastructure upgrades.
  
  Bahrain: Economic growth is predicted to stabilize at 3.5% in the current year after recording two years of decline. The improvement is driven by the completion of BAPCO refinery upgrades coupled with robust non-hydrocarbon growth supported by Bahrain’s Economic Vision 2030. BAPCO refinery upgrades are part of the major Bapco Modernization Program (BMP) in Bahrain, which aims to increase refining capacity by 42% from 267,000 to 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) by upgrading the existing Sitra refinery. Key aspects of the BMP include improving energy efficiency, expanding the product slate by processing heavier crude components into high-value distillates, and meeting stringent environmental standards. The program involves introducing new high-conversion units, such as Resid Hydrocracking and VGO Hydrocracking units, and updating existing infrastructure and utilities. The BMP is considered Bahrain's largest energy investment and a significant step to enhance the competitiveness and efficiency of its refining operations.
  
  Kuwait: Economic growth is expected to rebound to 2.2% in 2025, after contracting -2.9% in 2024 and -3.6% in 2023, mainly driven by the phase out of OPEC+ production caps and the expansion of non-hydrocarbon sectors supported by large infrastructure projects and credit growth. Kuwait’s economic growth is expected to remain stable at 2.7% over 2026-2027, with the long-term economic outlook pegged to the successful implementation of diversification and structural reforms.
  
  Oman: Growth is expected to accelerate to 3% in 2025, 3.7% in 2026, and 4% in 2027 after expanding only 1.7% in 2024. The growth will be driven by a rebound in oil production, with oil GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025, along with solid non-hydrocarbon growth (3.4%) driven by robust growth in manufacturing, construction, and services. This growth aligns with the final year of the sultanate's Tenth Five-Year Plan, which aims for diversification and fiscal stability through measures like non-oil revenue generation. However, global economic uncertainties and oil price volatility remain potential risks, according to the IMF. Source: Oilprice.com
- 2025-09-04
  MABUX: Global bunker market to reverse downward on Sep.04.
  The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its upward trend on Sep.03, marking the second consecutive day of gains: 380 HSFO: USD/MT 463.13 (+1.02) VLSFO: USD/MT 552.63 (+1.64) MGO:... Read more The MABUX World Bunker Index — a composite indicator tracking daily prices for 380 HSFO, VLSFO, and MGO — continued its upward trend on Sep.03, marking the second consecutive day of gains:
  
  380 HSFO: USD/MT 463.13 (+1.02)
  VLSFO: USD/MT 552.63 (+1.64)
  MGO: USD/MT 771.30 (+4.20)
  
  As of Sep.03 the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) — monitoring the correlation between Market Bunker Prices (MBP) and the MABUX Digital Bunker Price Benchmark (DBP) — continued to reflect an underpricing trend across all major bunker fuel segments in the key hubs of Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah, and Houston.
  
  • HSFO segment: Underpricing widened by $5 in both Rotterdam and Singapore, by $6 in Fujairah, and by $1 in Houston. Fujairah’s MDI is approaching the $100 threshold.
  
  • VLSFO segment: Discounts expanded by $9 in Rotterdam, $7 in Singapore, $7 in Fujairah, and $6 in Houston.
  
  • MGO LS segment: The undercharge margin increased further by $10 in Rotterdam, $12 in Singapore, $14 in Fujairah and $16 in Houston. Fujairah remained well above the $100 mark.
  
  We expect Global bunker market to shift downward on Sep.04: 380 HSFO – minus 3-7 USD/MT, VLSFO – minus 3-8 USD/MT, MGO LS – plus-minus 2-4 USD/MT.
  Source: MABUX

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